PRIZMINSIGHTS
Short pieces on South African commercial property — capital, structure, risk and returns. Written as we go, first shared on LinkedIn.
The useful question about a property firm is no longer “residential or commercial?” — it's what capital it can assemble, and for which assets. Why the shape of the stack, not the building, is the business.
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The most successful investors in private South African property didn't build big businesses — they built narrow ones. Specialist knowledge that doesn't transfer, not diversification, is where the returns come from.
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Over R400bn of catalytic development is announced across South Africa. Announced value is struck before the capital stack exists; realisable value is what the macro can finance and absorb this cycle. Closing the gap is a structuring problem.
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Four development cycles at Durban's Point Waterfront, one pattern: never a site problem — a structure problem. Why the next party there needs a better contract, not a better render.
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Nominal prime and the real cost of borrowing move in opposite directions at every turning point. Why the rate on the term sheet is rarely the rate you are actually paying.
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Lenders test thresholds that never appear on the form. Why a properly built investment pack costs a fraction of what deal friction does.
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Notes from the 2026 eThekwini Property Conference — where investors, developers and funders came to pave the way for real deals.
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A third pathway between retaining a liability and disposing of an asset: government buildings contributed as structured equity into PPPs. The mechanics already exist.
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Singapore, Amsterdam, Hong Kong and Canberra built property markets on state leasehold. Why the instrument works when the terms behave like freehold.
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A feasibility study on Claremont's derelict Werdmuller Centre — and the larger question of adaptive re-use across South Africa's modernist building stock.
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Rivertown: 18 hectares between the ICC and the Golden Mile, 15% of permissible bulk built, and a World Trade Centre newly at its door.
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What Cape Town's Good Hope Centre site could have been — and why a long ground lease beats an outright sale of significant public land.
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Giba Business Park holds four distinct use rights on a single title — tourism, business park, light industry and conservation — as a R1.9bn estate assembles next door.
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Repositioning Craighall's Lancaster Shopping Centre from first principles — why a well-located retail centre becomes obsolete when use no longer matches the node.
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